The Bumpy Road to 35% Electric Cars
California is progressing in its shift toward electric vehicles, but at what cost?
Photo Source: Bob Vila
California is the leading state in the conversion from gas-powered to electric vehicles.
In 2022, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) created a Zero-Emission Vehicle Program to set goals and provide resources to assist in the state’s shift to electric vehicles (EVs). The plan behind this program, the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, aspires to have 35 percent of California’s new vehicle sales be zero-emission or plug-in hybrid electric by 2026, with the overall goal being to convert entirely to 100 percent by 2035.
While this may seem like an ambitious goal, California’s current trajectory supports the feasibility of this project.
In 2022, EVs made up 18.8 percent of all new cars sold in California. By the end of the first fiscal quarter of 2023, that number quickly increased to 21.1 percent. If this trend continues, it seems possible that California could accomplish its 2026 goal. However, this change will not come without the challenge of obstacles.
American Car Culture
Like any country song will tell you, Americans love trucks.
This, along with American car culture typically preferring larger and heavier cars than those overseas, makes it so that many people are hesitant to convert to EVs. And although many brands, including American classics like Ford, are creating more visually diverse EVs to accommodate to truck or larger-car fans, these cars are inherently less efficient.
“If you look at the cost structure of an EV, 60 percent comes from the battery alone,” said Charlie Zha, head of digital innovation labs at PGNE.
EV batteries are designed to support lightweight, limited-range cars. Meaning it is challenging to implement a battery large enough to power a heavier car without significantly increasing the price of the vehicle, dissuading consumers both financially and aesthetically from making the switch.
Range
One of the most popular critiques of EVs is their driving range.
Although technological improvements are making EVs able to sustain a larger charge, they are still shorter-range vehicles than many gas-powered alternatives. Additionally, Zha said factors like the steepness of terrain or the use of air conditioning can drain the battery of an EV faster, decreasing its range.
This means that if EV owners are taking a longer trip, they must plan out their ability to find charging stations and account for the additional strain caused by non-flat roads.
While an EV may not be the perfect car for a chronic road-tripper, for people who use their car more casually, commuting to work and completing daily tasks, the range of a standard EV shouldn’t pose much of an issue.
Price and Social Impact
Although improvements are making EVs cheaper than ever before, an electric car is still generally more expensive than its gas-powered counterpart.
According to the California Energy Commission’s data, in 2022 Los Angeles was the county with the largest amount of newly registered electric vehicles. Los Angeles’ 96,090 was followed by Orange County with 43,517 and Santa Clara with 30,262.
These two runners-up are some of California’s highest-income counties. Although there are other important factors, such as population size and uneven distribution of income, the overall sales trend indicates people in high-income counties purchase EVs more frequently.
Zha pointed out that EV sales being concentrated in wealthier areas of the state also leads to public charging stations being more concentrated in these same areas to service EV drivers.
He said this creates an element of social inequality and can contribute to the deterrence of low-income households from purchasing EVs. Especially if price is already a concern, if charging stations are not easily accessible in an area, that population will be less likely to purchase an EV.
And as charging stations are built in wealthier areas, a cycle is created in which more high-income households will purchase EVs while low-income households are further discouraged.
The Big Problem
How many EVs can California’s power grid support?
While there are various factors affecting California’s ability to reach its ambitious sales goals, their likelihood makes it important to also consider what happens if they are achieved.
“I work for a utility company and I can tell you this much, the power grid is not ready,” Zha said. “I’m for EVs, but I’m trained as a scientist so I have to look at the facts.”
If California were to succeed with its attempt at a sustainable switch and made 35 percent, or an ambitious 100 percent, of EV car sales, Zha believes the amount of electricity needed to power all of those cars would overwhelm California’s power grid.
And when sustainably sourced solar and wind power is not enough to power all of California’s cars, other methods will be needed to produce that level of electricity. This could mean using fossil fuels to create the electricity needed to power EVs, reversing the attempt at the progress made.
While progress in EVs promises exciting environmental hope, there is still a lot to consider along the way. We can look to innovation in batteries, electric grids and charging stations to hopefully solve these issues while we quickly move towards electric conversion.
Best,
Stephanie for the Don’t Count Us Out Yet Team